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Ad rates to climb sharply, so says me

Advertisers, prepare for rates to go up. And I’m not talking about in print.

If newspapers respond to market demands, the amount of money it costs for a simple banner ad is about to jump dramatically. Just guessing on the exact figure, but I’d say online CPMs have a strong likelihood of at least doubling within the next two years.

On what do I base this daunting prediction?

A profile of washingtonpost.com’s finances from Fortune magazine enlightens us on the quandary all newspapers are facing, without a solution. The dominant print product is losing revenue in greater amounts than the Web version can grow to replace them.

The first step toward band-aiding this problem is furiously cutting expenses on the newspaper side. It’s happening now in the form of lay-offs, buyouts and shrinking news holes. “Opportunities” in this area will quickly turn bleak.

When executives are faced with choices that even the most cutthroat among us can’t stomach, they’ll need to find ways to raise revenues in a hurry.

Numerous smart executives will turn first to the newspaper for the money. After all, raising print rates offers the biggest and immediate return. Really smart executives will see through this temptation. After all, basic economics says that as demand falls, cost should follow suit. Not the other way around.

Raising print rates will only quicken the pace of defections, sending advertisers to any of the cheaper competitors for their marketing dollars.

Online advertising will benefit from this mistake.

Be on the lookout for sharp increases in the amount of your site's inventory that is sold out. When that happens, and without being able to generate gross amounts of new page views, the only option is raising rates.

As the newspaper’s sliding revenues only slide faster, executives will notice what’s happening online and see it as a chance to make some quick cash. Only this time, they’ll be right.

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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on July 28, 2007 6:11 PM.

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