Any hopes that print advertising revenues would recover during the last three months of 2007 should start withering with the announcement of first-quarter earnings in a few days. Optimistic executives might be tempted to retract earlier predictions of a late turnaround, having essentially proclaimed the downturn “in its last throes.”

The brutal reality is the decline might have just started and could worsen.

What some dismissed as a normal economic cycle has the potential to actually be a permanent correction. Pundits warned that boom days for print profits would end. Everyone agreed. Why can’t that be today?

When numbers for the first quarter of 2007 are released, I want you to look for something carefully. Each month of the quarter will have brought more disappointment than the one before it. That’s a trend carrying over from the fourth quarter, and the third of 2006.

Executives will start worrying about whether to revise down already conservative revenue projections. I’ve got one piece of advice: Be realistic. Be blunt.

With each puff of smoke you blow to investors and to your employees about how it’s the real estate market’s fault, or unemployment rates, or the gremlins, comes increasing risk of damage to your business when forced to announce further cuts during the months once scheduled as turnarounds.

Hold on, at least, to your credibility. You’ll need it to marshal the real turnaround.